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(LONG) The ultimate Mac Pro buyer's/upgrade guide for 2018

Mac Pro Buyer’s Guide: May 2018
Glad this channel is doing well, but I thought I’d add a few things as another late teens Apple enthusiast who just went through this exact process early 2017.
References/Resources:
You can download the official Apple Technician’s guide to the Mac Pro 5,1 from 2010 here:
http://tim.id.au/laptops/apple/macpro/macpro_mid2010.pdf
Get specs on any Apple product from either everymac.com or if you have an iOS device or Mac, download the app called Mactracker from the App Store. It’s the same thing, but very easy to use, that’s where I got the OS info of each model from.
Guide:
First, I’m gonna give a brief overview of the different versions of Mac Pro out there, then go part by part to describe how to look for upgrades based off my build and my experiences.
My build:
2010 Mac Pro 5,1 (authentic, not a flashed 2009)
Dual 3.33 GHz 6-core Xeon X5680s (12-core)
32GB RAM (4x 8GB ECC 1333MHz sticks)
GTX 970 4GB Reference (unflashed)
1 Dual HD-DVD/Bluray/DVD/etc. Combo drive
1 Stock Apple Superdrive (DVD/CD)
1 macOS 128GB SSD in OWE Accelsior PCIe to SATA 2.5” adapter
1 Samsung 840 Evo SSD 250GB for Windows OS
1TB HDD for macOS mass storage (install CD images of old OSes/apps)
1TB HDD for Windows mass storage (mostly games from Steam/Origin/etc.)
1TB HDD split: 500GB HFS+ for Time Machine, exFAT 500GB for Media storage (movies/TV shows/vinyl code uncompressed music/etc)
30” Cinema HD Display 2560x1600
Audioengine HD3 speakers
Logitech Performance MX mouse
Razer Blackwidow 2016 mechanical keyboard
Original Apple iSight external camera
(also, check this out and the rest of the site: http://www.minimallyminimal.com/blog/apple-isight
History:
The classic tower design was first used in 2003 as the body of the most powerful PowerPC Mac, the PowerMac G5. Interestingly, their biggest buyer was Microsoft, who used them as Xbox 360 dev kits. The main differentiators between any PowerMac G5 and Intel Mac Pro is that the G5 only has 1 disc drive on the front, and all the IO on the back is in 1 long column, whereas the Mac Pro has it in 2 columns. And, of course, the inside looks different.
Mac Pro 1,1 - 2006, runs 10.4.7 Tiger to 10.7.5 Lion
Mac Pro 2,1 - 2007 same as 1,1, except with an option for 8-core processors. Very similar to the iPod touch 3rd gen, where the 8GB was actually a 2nd gen and had the iPhone 3G specs, but the 16GB and 32GB were the real third gen and had 3GS specs, but they were sold at the same time alongside each other despite having different model numbers and internals. The Mac Pro 2,1 is just the 1,1 with dual and newer generation CPUs. Runs 10.4.9 Tiger to 10.7.5 Lion
Mac Pro 3,1 - early 2008, (out of date, and can’t easily and reliably be upgraded to Sierra or High Sierra. Not bad, but quickly becoming more and more out of date. Runs 10.5.1 Leopard to 10.11.6 El Capitan
Mac Pro 4,1 - early 2009, the final design of the classic tower, it had redone innards and looks identical to 2010 and 2012 models in almost every aspect, the sole difference being that this is the ONLY model of Mac Pro to use delidded CPUs. This is a process you can do yourself, and finding delidded CPUs compatible on sale is less common than the same CPUs lidded. There are ways around this, I think, but I don’t have one so I can’t speak for any techniques that raise the heatsinks enough to let you use a lid. Can reliably be flashed to identify itself as a 5,1, and therefore install High Sierra natively. (as a 4,1, if left unflashed), runs 10.5.6 Leopard to (later 2009 models shipped with, and therefore can only go as far back as 10.6 Snow Leopard), to 10.11.6 El Capitan
Mac Pro 5,1 - mid-2010 and mid-2012. Both models are identical, they only changed the year because of a spec bump, but the pieces themselves are identical. 2010s are generally cheaper because people will sell the 2012 to people for more, because it sounds newer. It’s not. Maybe the case will have less wear, but only because it’s 1-2 years newer. Runs 10.6.4 Snow Leopard or 10.7.x Lion (some late-stage 2010s, and all 2012s), up to 10.13.x High Sierra (and may lose support with 10.14)
DISCLAIMER: Genius Bar still supports 2012, but 2010 is considered “vintage,” which is fucking ridiculous since they’re identical, but if you’re buying one of these to upgrade and you’re the kind of person to need the Genius Bar for anything other than the most advanced and outlier circumstances where you can’t go to anyone but Apple, it’s fine to buy a 2010. Again, unless you need an official part replaced or something, but this “Supported” status of the 2012 is all subject to change as WWDC ‘18 is weeks away.
I don’t recommend buying anything below a 4,1 and prefer the 5,1 just because it’s more officially supported. (For now. It’s likely the next version of macOS won’t support 5,1, and there’ll have to be some other way to install 10.14, and Genius bar repairs will be a no-go for all aluminum towers)
PARTS GUIDE:
>I’m not an expert on pricing, so if I don’t warn about what to look for in terms of price, that means I probably don’t know and you’ll have to evaluate the best price yourself.
CPU: If you think you will ever want to have 2 CPUs, buy a Mac Pro with dual CPUs built-in over anything else because buying just the dual CPU tray on its own generally costs more than buying an entire other used Mac Pro, and the potential of 12-core is a wonderful allure.
If you have a single CPU MP, you can use Xeon W or a single Xeon X (whatever the model number begins with). If you have a dual CPU MP, you can only use Xeon X CPUs (each tier is roughly equivalent in terms of power, Intel just uses it to separate the CPUs designed for single or dual usage, since Xeons are normally for specialized, advanced users to buy for servers or certain workstations.)
The absolute best CPU you can put in a Mac Pro 5,1 (I don’t know what the W equivalent is called) is the Xeon X5690. However, it’s only several percent (in the single digits, I think), faster than an X5680, one model down, and for dual configurations X5680s are literally half the price on eBay, so unless money is no object I would look for X5680s over X5690s. Finding a “matched pair” (I think it means just tested to make sure they work efficiently together and are fully compatible) isn’t absolutely necessary, but it may mean incrementally better performance in certain circumstances. I don’t know, I’m not an expert on that.
GPU: General rule is that if you’re video editing, Final Cut Pro works best with AMD cards, and Premiere Pro works best with nVidia cards. If you’re gaming or using Windows, it’s up to you. It works (almost) exactly like a PC card, and there’s plenty of room for a big card so size is no issue.
HOWEVER**,** and this may actually discourage some people from buying a Mac Pro entirely:
The Mac Pro has no graphics drivers installed natively. Its EFI does not contain any graphics drivers so therefore, there are 3 options that you have. (Also, I'm sure I'm fucking up why it doesn't work like a PC might, but I do know I'm right about how to solve to problem in these three solutions
Buy a card model that Apple shipped in a Mac Pro. This is either a model that Apple sold with the Mac Pro originally that you must either buy flashed (using a PC you can connect it to and boot into, or if it came in a Mac Pro brand-new, it was already flashed in the factory), with an EFI that supports the Apple boot screen (that you hold alt to get to, to choose a boot volume), and the Apple recovery partition (that you hold Command-R on boot to get to or select from the boot screen)
The best card Apple ever shipped with the old Mac Pro was the AMD HD 7950 with 3GB of VRAM. I believe that any card Apple shipped has a free EFI available somewhere online to flash for yourself, so it doesn’t necessarily have to be a card that actually physically shipped in a Mac Pro. Best cards that you can flash to be natively compatible with Mac are the AMD R9 280x (which is virtually identical to the HD 7950, virtually same performance AFAIK), or GTX 680. You can also buy an Apple-branded (but those are more expensive) (or pre-flashed or unflashed, then you flash it yourself) nVidia GT120 just to switch the display to or to have plugged in to a secondary display to for the boot screen. These don’t require any other connections than its own PCIe port, so you can have it in simultaneously above a full-power GPU.
Get your card flashed, if the EFI is not available: If you don’t want to risk it (but if you don’t feel comfortable doing it, you probably shouldn’t buy a MP), or if you have a card where the EFI to flash it is not available online, you can see if it’s one of the models available to be flashed by macvidcards.com. This guy has been at it for years, and basically just as a hobby sells flashed cards and flashing services, to get newer and better cards natively working with every aspect of the Mac Pro. He does not offer either sale or just free downloads of his EFI to flash it yourself (because of course, someone could just reupload it to MEGA or use a torrent or something and he’d lose a great deal of income, makes sense I guess), so the only way is to either buy it from his preflashed or send in your own card for an exceptionally expensive fee to flash it yourself (because once again, even if you’re capable of doing the extremely easy process of flashing yourself, macvidcards doesn’t sell just the EFI files, and he’s pretty protective and secretive about how the EFIs are put together so unless you want to take the time to make one yourself for your card, you just can’t get the EFI on its own, and it’s fucking annoying. It prevents me from being able to upgrade my macOS without putting in an old card to boot into the installerecovery; it’s a big inconvenience.
Leave your card unflashed: This is what I have done (because holy shit it’s $174 to get my 970 flashed: $160 for the service and $14 for shipping, even though I’m close to this guy, but too far away and don’t have enough time nor a car to drop off my card there for a flashing service, that costs only $20 cheaper than I bought the entire card for on eBay). With this, you must keep the old flashed card around, and every time there’s a macOS update that changes the version number (including forced hotfixes like the one a couple months ago after 10.13 was released, and most if not all security updates), you must put the old card back in, boot, and install the upgrade from there, then
nVidia: Install the new nVidia drivers with the old flashed card inside, (and sometimes they take a couple days after an upgrade is released to update the driver, because the driver is matched with the macOS version number (and sometimes difference versions have multiple version numbers, so you have to click on the (10.x.x) number in “About This Mac” to find which one you have. Otherwise, since GPU drivers for Mac load at the end of the boot process, it won’t boot into the new OS, and will just kick back to Windows (because your card contains a windows-compatible driver), or remain at a black screen if you don’t have drivers installed for your card. This driver is separate from the EFI flash you need to have, but I’m not sure if the card will run a lower-quality (no vsync, no transparency, no GPU acceleration) version of macOS that should allow you to install a GPU driver. I know that’s how it works for hackintosh. There is no easy way to install a third-party EFI like rEFInd (formerly rEFIt), or Clover. Not entirely sure why, probably because it uses the Apple EFI first, and there’s some other issue with GPU drivers.
If you want to use a 1080ti, Titan XP, (and maybe Vega 64), it draws more power than the PCIe slot and two power ports can supply, but nowhere near the capacity of the 980w built-in PSU. You can tap either a SATA port or the PSU itself for extra power, but you have to physically modify the hardware for the PSU hack and you lose a SATA port if you tap it for power, so I don’t want to do that because I use every SATA port.
For more info on the power issue: http://www.macvidcards.com/blog/the-pesky-power-issue-with-pascal-1080ti-and-titan
AMD: Congratulations, you don’t have to install new drivers every time you upgrade your macOS installation because hey, Apple already sells (modified versions of) these GPUs in existing Macs, all the way from the RX 480/580 or earlier R8/R9 models, to the Vega 56 and 64 (which are supported since the iMac Pro has them, but the 64 may cause a power issue similar to the 1080ti/Titan XP issue). However, they still won’t show you the boot screen or take you to recovery without being flashed first. So same issues as the nvidia cards in that respect. The only difference is you don’t need to install third-party drivers.
IMPORTANT FOR WINDOWS/BOOT CAMP/LINUX/OTHER DUAL BOOTERS:
As of High Sierra, and specifically if your drive is in APFS format, Apple hasn’t released Boot Camp drivers for APFS on Windows, and also doesn’t mount HFS drives properly from a certain 2016 build of Windows 10 and onward. If your drive is HFS+, and you want to install Windows Vista, 7, or 8, you’re all good to install and with an unflashed card just switch the default boot drive each time before rebooting. However, since Windows 10 doesn’t recognize APFS, once you set Windows as the default boot drive you can’t boot back to macOS on APFS if you can’t access the boot screen. You could either revert your drive to HFS (which requires erasing it, I believe), or do what I did. It requires turning of System Integrity Protection (SIP; it locks anyone, software or user, from modifying boot files or system applications). To turn it off, boot to Recovery, open Terminal, and type “csrutil disable”
You can check if it’s on or off by entering “csrutil status” in either Recovery or your normal macOS boot, and back in Recovery only, reenable it with “csrutil enable”
Sidenote- with this turned off you can change system application icons like you can folders and third-party apps, and it only marginally decreases your security. You still need to download and install a virus for it to be a problem, it just prevents the virus from modifying any macOS or Apple software.
IMPORTANT FOR FILEVAULT USERS: If you use FileVault, the built-in full-drive encryption service, you CANNOT log in with an unflashed card. FileVault makes you sign in with your master password before booting the computer entirely, and yes, before loading graphics drivers to the computer itself, so it relies on the GPU EFI to do this. If you encrypt your drive with FileVault and have an unflashed card, your mac will just sit on a black screen indefinitely, and you have to swap it out for a flashed card, let it decrypt entirely because otherwise it will still request a password before boot, and then swap out the card to the unflashed one.
Optical Drives: Sure, you can swap them out for more SATA space (though it’s different from a hard drive SATA connector, you may need an adapter), I think there’s plenty of drive space in the Mac Pro and since mine came with 1 Superdrive I had room for one more so for $15 on eBay I found a combo HD DVD/Bluray/DVD drive, and though I don’t have HDDVDs, only Blurays and DVDs, it was still cheaper than buying a Bluray-only drive and lets me use HDDVDs if I ever want to. If you buy a third party drive, make sure you remove the front plastic piece that has all the logos on it before, otherwise it won’t fit through the slot when you try to eject it.
Fun fact, if you have only 1 optical drive, the case contains 4 screws in placeholder holes in the optical drive caddy. Kinda cool that they left them there so you wouldn’t have to search for fitting screws, and they have the fancy Apple design so it matches the case.
RAM: 1333MHz RAM is marginally best, but I haven’t noticed a huge difference between when I had the 8-core CPUs and the RAM ran at 1066MHz, and now when I have the 12-core X5680s and the same sticks run at 1333MHz. I think the bigger boost came from the CPU upgrade, but don’t let that stop you from buying the fastest RAM possible. Also, “registered” or ECC (error-correcting code) RAM comes with the Mac Pro, but is not required, if you have a ton of non-ECC RAM lying around. It just won’t boot if you mix and match ECC and non ECC (“unregistered”). You must have all the same kind of sticks. Mine came with 32GB, and my 2015 MacBook Pro has 16, so I dunno what smaller amounts of RAM will do to a Mac Pro of this age, or High Sierra, but it seems to be fine at 8-12GB or higher. 8 should be fine, but in the next year or two may become a little bit tight to use. Depends on the use case.
Networking: Between gigabit ethernet and built-in N wifi, I get along fine at home and at college, but if you need AC, you can buy a simple upgrade kit here:
http://www.osxwifi.com/adapters/apple-broadcom-bcm94360cd-802-11-a-b-g-n-ac-bluetooth-4-0-with-adapter-for-macpro-2009-and-macpro-2010
However, it’s fairly expensive, and I don’t need continuity/handoff/etc desperately, so I haven’t gotten it. You’re not going to find that special Bluetooth connector cable anywhere else easily, and this guy’s pretty reputable within the community, so just like macvidcards, it’s begrudgingly the best (and only) option to bring another part of your Mac Pro up to date.
*I think this is good for now, but I’ll go through it tomorrow afternoon and make sure I add in a storage guide and anything else I think I missed. Because that's a tech rabbit hole within itself. Thanks for making it to the end :)
submitted by ItIsShrek to LukeMianiYouTube

Vegas Knows Best: A Comparison of Prediction Methods for the 2017 NFL Season [OC]

Vegas Knows Best: A Comparison of Prediction Methods for the 2017 NFL Season

Hi nfl! When I first got into football a few years ago, I liked to read weekly game predictions, to get a taste of each matchup and plan which game(s) to watch. I became an avid reader of Elliot Harrison's prediction articles, as these teased the key storylines for the weekend.
His predictions are fun, but I couldn't help but suspect that his picks are terrible, and even an idiot like me could do better. I did some research to find out just how easy it is to become an NFL pick guru by comparing 4 prediction methods against the 2017 NFL season.

Methodology

I used Pro Football Reference to get game scores (including playoffs) for the 2017 NFL season. I then collected Elliot Harrison's picks from his weekly articles (search Elliot Harrison week X picks site:nfl.com), FiveThirtyEight's 2017 predictions, and the Vegas favorite for each game (also available on PFREF), and created a giant spreadsheet (link below) to compare each method to a simple one of my own concoction. Here's an overview of how each method works:

Prediction methods

  1. Elliot Harrison -- Elliot does 3 minutes of research and then picks the team he likes more (as far as I can tell)
  2. "You are what your record is" -- My simple, brain-dead method for predicting winners: the winner is the team with the better record entering the game. If both teams are tied, use the previous years record(s) until the tie is broken. Example: In Week 6, the Falcons (3-1) played the Dolphins (2-2), so I would predict the Falcons as the winners. Also that week, the Eagles played the Panthers and were both 4-1, but because the Eagles won 7 games in 2016 to Carolina's 6, I would pick the Eagles.
  3. 538's NFL predictions -- These are based on ELO, a sort of weighted-average of a team's previous game results. Notably, these predictions take into account home-field advantage (more on that later).
  4. Vegas betting lines -- take whoever is favored in the moneyline. For "pick'em" games, choose the home team.

Results

All of my data and the results can be found in this spreadsheet.

Pick Accuracy

I first looked at pick accuracy for the season, and then broke down splits for each (roughly) quarter of the season, to see if any methods were more accurate during a particular portion of the season. I also broke down how well each method predicted Home and Road winners.
PNG version
Elliot Harrison Team Record 538 ELO Vegas # of Games
Pick %, season 0.640 0.633 0.652 0.685 267
Pick %, Weeks 1-4 0.603 0.603 0.651 0.603 63
Pick %, Weeks 5-8 0.589 0.625 0.607 0.660 56
Pick %, Weeks 9-13 0.671 0.671 0.658 0.753 73
Pick %, Weeks 14-17 0.719 0.640 0.671 0.750 64
Pick %, Postseason 0.455 0.545 0.727 0.455 11
Pick %, Home Winners 0.677 0.658 0.796 0.750 152
Pick %, Postseason 0.596 0.605 0.465 0.605 114
No surprise here, Vegas turns out to be the best at picking straight-up winners! Over the course of the season, Vegas correctly picked 183 games, 12 more than Elliot got right, and 14 more than my brain-dead method. Some other observations:
  • For a dumb method, choosing the team with a better record works almost exactly as well as Elliot's guesswork! This is somewhat amazing, since my method is completely oblivious to injuries (like Aaron Rodgers), trades (Like Jimmy Garoppolo), and meaningless week 17 games (Rams/Eagles having nothing to play for).
  • My method also turns out to be (tied for) the best way to predict teams that will win on the road. 538's ELO method, which includes an adjustment for home team advantage, significantly favors home picks, and does far worse than any other method predicting road upsets. But if you are picked by 538 as the home team, you have a staggering 80% chance of winning!
  • I originally thought that ELO would be poor at the beginning of the season, because it doesn't take into account the roster differences year to year, but it seems to be fairly consistent throughout. Vegas does seem to learn and improve in the second half of the season.
  • Because of the small sample size, the playoffs are a bit of a crap shoot. The "Any-given-Sunday" factor really applies to single-elimination brackets.
I also wanted to see if any methods are biased toward particular teams. To do that I looked at each teams record based on the analyst/algorithm' prediction, and compared to their actual 2017 Win total.

Predicted vs Actual Wins

Here is the full table of predicted win totals.
Here is same table, but each entry is the number of wins predicted minus the team's end of regular season total.
A negative number mean's the prediction under-estimated the number of wins a team would get. For example, Vegas predicted the cardinals to win 5 of their 16 games, but the Cardinals won 8, for an "overachievement" score of (-3). Large negative numbers mean a team consistently over-achieved.
  • To nobody's surprise, teams like Dallas & New England are almost always favored by Vegas -- New England was predicted to win every game, but "only" managed to win 13, for a +3 score.
  • Elliot tends to favor big-market or fan-favorite teams, like Green Bay, New England and Dallas, but doesn't highly underrate any teams in particular.
  • My "you are what your record is" doesn't do well on streaky teams. The Chargers, who started 2017 1-4, caught fire down the stretch and finished with 9 wins. Likewise, my method couldn't have seen Jimmy "5-0" Garoppolo winning every start for the 49ers, or predict the Chiefs second-half collapse.
  • The "Tanking-over-my-dead-body" Jets and resilient Cardinals also beat expectations across the board.

Most OveUnderrated Teams

Elliot Harrison Team Record 538 ELO Vegas
Most Overrated DAL, GB (+4) KC (+5) KC (+5) ATL, DEN (+4)
Most Underrated 6 teams (-2) SF (-6) SF (-6) SF (-4)

Conclusion

Turns out Vegas really does know what it's doing. Beating their predictions is hard, even with algorithms like ELO, but beating analysts at NFL Network is easy! For next season I'm thinking of coming up with some more sophisticated prediction methods, and seeing how they fare against each other.
submitted by EstevezEstevez to nfl

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